[A night of political upheaval in South Korea has upended stability in a key democratic US ally – sending shock waves through the region and Washington at a moment of acute global tension.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday night in a surprise decree that was reversed hours later following overwhelming opposition across the political spectrum for what was widely seen as a breach of the country’s vibrant democracy. The move, which Yoon claimed was necessary to “save the country against anti-state forces” trying to destroy the “constitutional order of liberal democracy,” was met by protests in Seoul and mounting calls for the president’s resignation.
The stunning development appeared to catch Washington off guard. The US has nearly 30,000 troops and its largest overseas base in South Korea, serving as a check against a belligerent North Korea and counterweight to an aggressive China in a strategically critical region.
The turmoil has the potential for significant ramifications at a moment of deepening geopolitical fault lines in Asia, where both North Korea and China are strengthening their alignment with Russia as it wages war on Ukraine. Leaders in Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow are likely watching the developments in Seoul with an eye to its potential to undermine a key bastion of US power in the region.
The US-South Korea alliance has long been seen by both countries as a cornerstone of peace in the region, where North Korea continues to threaten South Korea and the US with its illegal weapons program. The threat has only become more acute as North Korea has ramped up its partnership with Russia, sending ammunition, missiles, and soldiers, intelligence officials say, to aid Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
The political turmoil also raises a potential opening for Kim Jong Un to capitalize on the chaos. The North Korean leader is known to choose opportune political moments for major weapons tests – for example, firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile days before the US presidential election last month. “We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea’s democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul,” said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula. “We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise.”
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