Ireland’s Election Looks Set to Continue Incumbent Center-Right Rule
Ireland’s election is expected to result in the incumbent center-right parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, securing victory, signaling continuity for the business community. Fianna Fáil, led by Micheál Martin, and Fine Gael, helmed by Simon Harris, are likely to form a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, and may seek backing from smaller opposition parties to do so.
The result breaks with the trend of weaker incumbent election results seen internationally this year. The election delivered shock losses for high-profile names, and disappointment for previous coalition member the Green party and challenger Sinn Féin, which is expected to equal Fine Gael’s number of TDs (parliamentarians) but does not appear able to begin its own coalition talks.
Despite the result, there is underlying frustration among a growing part of the Irish population that has not been captured in this election, particularly with regards to the country’s dire housing crisis. The crisis has seen an increase in homelessness, particularly in the capital Dublin.
Economists have questioned whether the country faces an economic threat from Donald Trump’s re-election in the U.S., given his threats of sweeping universal tariffs and a protectionist stance. However, the latest election result confirms that there is no significant political movement in Ireland demanding a protectionist shift away from its very open economy.
The result is expected to send a positive signal to businesses, indicating that Ireland remains a good place to do business, still open to global companies, and pro-business. The Trump presidency may impact the decision of companies in the future on where to set up, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, but there is unlikely to be any kind of exodus from the country.
