Several major brokerages have revised their predictions for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 after a strong US employment report. The report suggested resilient economic growth, leading some brokerages to believe the Fed may hold off on further rate cuts.
BofA Global Research is one such firm, stating that it no longer sees the need for rate cuts and believes the easing cycle is over. Instead, it predicts the Fed may raise interest rates in the future.
Other brokerages have also adjusted their predictions for 2025. Here are the rate cut estimates from major brokerages:
* BofA Global: No rate cut
* Barclays: 50 basis points (3.75-4.00% by end of 2025)
* Goldman Sachs: 50 basis points (3.75-4.00% through December)
* J.P. Morgan: 75 basis points (3.50-3.75% through June, September)
* Morgan Stanley: 50 basis points (3.75-4.00% through June)
* Nomura: 25 basis points (4.00-4.25% by end of 2025)
* UBS Global: 125 basis points (3.00-3.25% by end of 2025)
* Deutsche Bank: No rate cut (4.25-4.50%)
* Societe Generale: No rate cut (3.00-3.25% by early 2026)
* ING: 75 basis points (3.75-4.00%)
* Macquarie: 25 basis points (4.00-4.25%)
* UBS Global Wealth Management: 50 basis points (3.75-4.00% by end of 2025)
* Peel Hunt: 50 basis points (3.50-4.00%)
These predictions suggest that many brokerages no longer expect the Fed to make significant rate cuts in 2025, with some even predicting rate hikes.
