The Problem of the Speaker’s Election
The problem of the speaker’s election has been percolating for a while, but it has recently come to the forefront since the House’s failed attempt to avert a government shutdown last week. The issue is that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., may face a problem winning the speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes on January 3.
The House has a reed-thin majority, with only 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats, and Johnson may not be able to win the necessary votes to become speaker. In fact, anywhere from four to 10 Republicans could oppose Johnson in the speaker’s race.
The math is complicated, but essentially, the House needs to elect a speaker with an outright majority of all members casting ballots for someone by name. If Johnson fails to win the necessary votes, the House will be paralyzed and unable to do anything until a speaker is elected.
This could lead to a prolonged and messy speaker’s election, similar to the one that occurred in 2023 when it took 15 ballots over five days to elect a speaker. The failure to elect a speaker could also delay the certification of the Electoral College results, which is scheduled to take place on January 6.
If the House is still unable to elect a speaker by January 20, the Constitution requires that the president-elect take the oath of office. However, if the Electoral College is not certified by then, the speaker of the House would become president, which could lead to a series of unprecedented and potentially chaotic events.
The situation is precarious, and it is unclear if the House can avoid a prolonged and messy speaker’s election. The outcome is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the fate of the country hangs in the balance.
